Tesla Model 3 Will Dominate the EV Market

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In Q1 2017, we’ve seen a 47% jump in electric vehicle sales. If we use this as a baseline for each quarter, we’re looking to be up 30% from last year. Recently, I shared my projections for 2017 sales of the Tesla Model 3 – which I predicted will be about 83,000. Learn more about how I got this number here:

This week, we’ll be looking at how the Tesla Model 3 will likely increase EV sales by 40%.This will increase overall EV sales by 82%.

You can dig into that data here:
I think sell they’ll 5,000 Model 3s per week sometime in late October,. By the end of this year, I think they’ll top out at about 6,000 Model 3s per week. While these estimates won’t be exact, I did use the log growth curve that Elon Musk stated is what Tesla will be use once all the production equipment is installed.

So, with my prediction of 83,000 Tesla Model 3s sold in 2017. we’ll see a total of 286,000 electric vehicles sold in the US this year. That’s a 40% increase due solely to the Tesla Model 3! It’s no wonder Tesla is the dominant player in the EV market – and their stock is soaring.

Here is how I see it playing out:

However, there are skeptics out there as to whether they’ll be able to pull it off. In fact, even I have my doubts. Regardless, even if they’re close, this is going to be a huge year for Tesla and the EV market overall.

Do you think Tesla will be able to pull it off and make this predicted impact? Share your thoughts in the comments below.

I compiled my data using the following sources:

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39 Replies to “Tesla Model 3 Will Dominate the EV Market”

  1. bryan stone

    Based on my projected delivery time, which is "late 2018," I'm assuming I won't get my TM3 until September. If that's the case I will not be pushing mine back at all. It's actually kind of perfect for my financial situation that I'd have to wait until that around that time.

  2. Marcus Rudel

    In Germany, Teslas Model 3 will disrupt the market for leased company cars, as the Total Cost of Ownership is considerably lower compared to any ICE cars with similar specs. That will deal a heavy blow to the automakers catering to that lease market today. Have Audi, BMW, Daimler, Porsche and Volkswagen realized, what will hit them in about 2 years? Maybe. Have they prepared comparable new cars to launch by that time? Hardly. Plus, Teslas Supercharger network has no rival from any of the German carmakers.

  3. Lady pilliwick

    the Bolt isn't selling….they have slowed the line down and the unsold cars are stacking up…
    seems the dealerships don't want to sell them…because theirs little or no maintenance on a EV

  4. falcon7350

    YOU should do a video on what EVs are going to do to the price of gas and how much less gas well use over time . there are some cool videos out there about this but you well get alot more non EVs viewer if the tags are right

  5. TekReviews

    The Bolt gets 387 miles hypermiling on a single charge. So far the stats show the Model 3 won't even get as many miles on a charge. I doubt the Model 3 will dominate anything except those who like to buy cars based on their Logo's cough LEXUS cough.

  6. Road to the 2 Comma Club

    First I think it's always important to consider Tesla is a baby when it comes to car manufacturing years. Some companies have literally been around for over 100 years, so I don't think it's fair to hold Tesla up to the same standards as say Ford or GM. With that said, I think they're at a very good pace so far, and also keep in mind they're making cars that drive themselves! No other company is making cars like these (and actually selling them to the public), so that's another reason we should give some more leeway to Tesla. So all in all I think they're doing very well, and if they build another factory or can even get to 20,000 per month like Elon said that would be amazing. I don't own a Tesla yet but I plan on starting a collection one day, so I think my first car will be a used Model S (before they redesigned the nose of the car). The hard one will be getting a Roadster. 😉

  7. Taylor Keller

    lots of use of the word "sustainable" on here, care to explain how 1500lbs of precious (and toxic) heavy metals that only lasts about 10 years and CANNOT be recycled (for the most part) is so sustainable?

  8. westvanpolice

    My prediction is the model 3 will explode EV sales more then anyone thinks, then tesla will seamlessly build another factory and roll out the Semi Truck, Better Batteries, Model Y, AND do the solar stuff too…

    Tesla is going to be a household name MUCH sooner then people think…

    In Elons life, has he ever settled for "meh i just tried…"
    Tesla will be a, just as big or bigger influential brand than Apple..
    Give it a few years.. Decade tops

  9. James 1:19

    well what you either don't know or don't care enough about to explain is the battery Market in China. China has already stated the United States and Europe will no longer be allowed to manufacture and dispose lithium ion batteries in China unless the fee is increased by over 150%.
    see the true impact of hybrid and electric cars has been shipped to China and that fixing to stop. we don't make lithium batteries in China because it's cheaper to manufacture. we make them there because the environmental harm done not processing the heavy metals. up to this point that old saying the solution to pollution is to do it in China has been the EV cars best friend.

  10. jerry kurata

    I am about 15 miles from the factory and Teslas are already pretty common. With the Model 3 they will as ubiquitous as a Toyotas or BMWs. I have my day 1 pre-order, but will wait until AWD, and HUD are available.

  11. Sidney Mantissa

    sales figures are very different from delivery figures… you are overestimating their production capability.

    and Tesla won't have a good year until they can make a profit. they have yet to do that.

  12. redxsage

    Tesla may well build 80,000+ of the Model 3 during 2017, but I believe their Deliveries in the U.S. will be a bit lower. Maybe in the 45,000 to 60,000 unit range. Some cars would be pushed to Q1 2018 here to preserve the Federal EV Tax Credit through mid-2019. Others would be sent to Canada, Mexico, or Left Hand Drive countries in Europe, like Norway.

  13. Robin Harrison

    Strangely, the completely predictable effects of exponential growth are invariably underestimated.
    Exponential growth starts slow and is seemingly insignificant. By the time it becomes significant it's on the verge of taking over. Renewable energy is already significant and EVs are not far behind.
    We're on the brink of the end of the fossil fuel age.

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